Sektorforskydninger i en multisektor CGE-model med asymmetrisk vækst

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01-05-2014
DREAM Øvrige emner Peter Lihn Jørgensen

We set up a multisector CGE-model for a closed economy with sectoral CES production functions and different Harrod-neutral technological growth rates across sectors.

Abstract

We set up a multisector CGE-model for a closed economy with sectoral CES production functions and different Harrod-neutral technological growth rates across sectors. By simulation we show that the model is qualitatively capable of replicating Kuznet's stylized facts about sectorial reallocation of production factors. Further, the model exhibits asymptotically balanced growth consistent with Kaldor's stylized facts of economic growth. Potentially, the model can approximate Kaldor's facts in the short run as well. When the elasticity of substitution is lower than 1 in both the demand function and the production functions, we show that 1) labor is reallocated to the sector with low productivity growth; 2) capital is reallocated to the slow (fast) growing sector, when the elasticity of substitution in the demand function is lower (higher) than the elasticity of substitution between capital and labor in the production functions, and 3) capital will not be fully reallocated to any sector. Furthermore, the fast growing sector will not be able to maintain a high production growth rate in the long run when the elasticity of substitution is below 1. In the asymptotic steady state the growth rate of output in both sectors and in the economy overall will be given by the growth rate in the low-growth sector. These results differ from the existing results of the theoretical litterature on nonbalanced growth (for instance Acemoglu and Guerrieri (2008) and Ngai and Pissarides (2006)), which employs sectoral Cobb-Douglas production functions.