Makroeffekt af øget uddannelse i Danmark

Billede af publikationens forside
30-04-2015
REFORM Makroøkonomi Uddannelse Grane Høegh

I dette papir vurderes de makroøkonomiske effekter af øget uddannelse med fokus på de såkaldte Rybczynskieffekter. På baggrund af den generelle ligevægtsmodel REFORM - kalibreret på danske data - er konklusionen, at øget uddannelsesniveau kun i meget begrænset omfang vil give en overgang til produktion i videnstunge brancher. Der er altså kun små Rybczynski-effekter.

Abstract

On the basis of a CGE-model calibrated on danish data the returns to education is examined. The main focus is on evaluating the macroeconomic effects of education in Denmark with specific focus on Rybczynski effects. Rybczynski effects imply that with an increase in education sectors with many educated workers will grow relative to sectors with few educated workers. If strong Rybczynski effects are present relative wages are unchanged by increased demand and microestimates of returns to education can be used directly to make macroeconomic evaluations. The result of the paper is unambigously that there are only small Rybczynski effects in the Danish economy. The low demand elasticities for sectors with highly educated workers are driving this result. The lack of strong Rybczynski effects makes it essential to evaluate educational effects in a macroeconomic set up with relevant educational groups. In this macroeconomic set up it is essential to include a reasonable forecast of skill bias in the technological change as it seems to have had a main influence on the demand for more highly educated labour in the last decades.